Legislative Update
January 5, 2012
Romney ekes out a win in the Iowa Caucuses, Santorum and Paul a close second and third
Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses on January 3 with 24.6 percent of the vote (30,015 votes), edging out second place finisher, former Pennsylvania U.S. Senator Rick Santorum by a mere eight votes. Santorum’s 24.5 percent (30,007 votes) placed him slightly ahead of third place finisher Congressman Ron Paul who garnered 21.4 percent (26,219 votes). The rest of the GOP field performed as follows; Gingrich: 13.3 percent (16,251 votes), Perry: 10.3 percent (12,604 votes), Bachmann: 5 percent (6,073 votes), Huntsman: 0.6 percent (745 votes), no preference: 0.1 percent (135 votes), other: 0.1 percent (117 votes). Herman Cain, who suspended his campaign earlier last month, received 58 votes.
The top three finishers are considerably different from one another. Romney is seen as the candidate of more moderate, fiscally conservative “Chamber of Commerce Republicans”. Santorum has garnered significant support among evangelical Christians and conservative Roman Catholic voters. Paul’s strong libertarian bent appeals to many who wish to see a smaller more limited federal government and less military commitments abroad.
The New Hampshire Primary follows on January 10. According to January polling data (Real Clear Politics: RCP Average), Romney enjoys a comfortable lead with a projected 40 percent. Ron Paul is currently second with a projected 18.7 percent and Gingrich in third with 11.3 percent. The rest of the field is currently polling as follows; Huntsman: 10.3 percent, Santorum 4.3 percent, Bachmann: 4.3 percent and Perry: 2.3 percent.
Michelle Bachmann’s decision to end her presidential campaign will not move the needle much in New Hampshire. Presumably, the 4.3 percent who were inclined to support her might go to Santorum and/or Perry. Since the beginning of the Republican nomination process, Romney has been the presumed winner of New Hampshire, given the amount of time he has spent their and his strong regional ties.
The South Carolina Primary, which follows on January 21 will prove considerably more challenging for Romney. According to recent polling data (Real Clear Politics: RCP Average), Newt Gingrich is in the lead a projected 34.5 percent of the vote, which places him 14.5 points ahead of second place Romney at 20 percent. Ron Paul is polling at 8.5 percent with Perry (5 percent), Huntsman (3.5 percent) and Santorum (3 percent) bringing up the rear. Bachmann polled at 6.5 percent. Her support, as in New Hampshire, may end up split among Perry and Santorum. Since 1980, no candidate was won the Republican nomination without winning the South Carolina Primary. 2012 might end that streak.
The month ends with the January 31st Florida Primary. Gingrich currently leads in polling by seven points over Romney with a projected 35 percent to Romney’s 27 percent. The rest of the field is currently in single digits with Paul at 6.5 percent, Perry at 4 percent, Bachmann at 3.5 (which again begs the question of where her support goes following her withdrawal), Huntsman at 2 percent and Santorum at 1.5 percent.
Some observers are calling a Romney nomination inevitable. With the new GOP primary rules which assign delegates proportionally, based on candidates’ performance in the various state contests, rather than the former “winner take all” approach, it may take somewhat longer than many expect to identify a presumptive nominee.
2012 has arrived: What will the New Year bring?
Happy New Year; as of this writing, it appears that the United States House of Representatives will be back in session on January 17 and the United States Senate on January 23. Hopefully, in the intervening weeks between now and then, leadership in both parties and the White House can reach consensus on key issues to move our country forward.
The wonderful, and frightening, thing about early January is that it is impossible to know what the next twelve months will bring. Can we expect further economy recovery or a slide into a second “technical” recession? Will there be war or peace? Who will be the president? Which party will control the House and the Senate? Will the Phillies win their division?
One thing is clear, Congress and the president are not getting the job done. Make no mistake, both parties are to blame. It is tempting to follow the convenient narrative laid out by Fox News and the Wall Street Journal that President Obama has failed to lead and that Democrats are stubbornly clinging to outmoded Keynesian notions about the role of government in spurring economic growth. It is equally tempting for those with a more (large D) Democratic bent to content themselves with the New York Times/ MSNBC version of events which has out of touch, corporate shills running the Republican Party and blocking the noble efforts of the president and the Democratic party to get our country back on the right track.
The truth of the matter is that neither version is accurate. The fact of the matter is that both parties, when given access to the till, have spent too much. Neither party has made the difficult decisions necessary to curb the frightening growth in entitlement spending. Both parties have failed to act to make the United States a more attractive place to invest and/or repatriate capital. It is time for Americans and American businesses to demand sensible solutions and responsible action to address generational challenges. Our success or failure in controlling the growth of entitlement spending, lowering the debt and deficit, rebuilding our transportation and educational infrastructures will determine our country’s place in the world and in the quality of our children’s and grandchildren’s lives.