Legislative Update
2012 – It’s not just a bad Nicholas Cage movie
With a little more than one year to go until the 2012 election, Europe in economic turmoil, unemployment greater than 9 percent, a possible second “dip” recession and declining approval ratings for both the president and Congress, we can expect an interesting and challenging political year ahead.
On the Congressional front, Republicans currently hold a sizable majority in the House with 242 out of 435 seats. They are likely to keep the House, and possibly make some gains. They also stand a reasonable chance of picking up the United States Senate. Currently, the makeup of the Senate is 51 Democrats, 2 independents (who caucus with the Democrats to make a working majority of 53) and 47 Republicans. However, in the coming elections, there are 33 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot, 23 of which are currently in Democratic hands while 10 are in Republican hands. The Republicans only need to gain four seats for a majority and 13 for a cloture-proof majority. This morning’s Real Clear Politics aggregate polling data had 82.3 percent of Americans disapproving of Congress.
Aggregate data, also from Real Clear Politics indicate a 42 percent approval rating for President Obama’s performance. Three large domestic questions that loom where the Administration’s political fortunes are concerned are the extent to which the economy will continue to worsen into 2012, whether any of the president’s jobs package will get through Congress and what the Supreme Court will do regarding the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
Given the financial turmoil in Europe and the worsening economic data we are seeing, chances are that, at best our bad economy will remain static, but is likely to worsen. As to the president’s American Jobs Act, it faces an uphill battle in the House – to say the least. The sweeping health care reform bill passed in 2010, also known as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, has been the subject of a number of legal challenges – chiefly from the States. At the heart of the argument is whether the mandatory purchase requirement in the bill exceeded Congress’ powers under the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution. Most observers expect it to boil down to a 5-4 decision with Roberts, Alito, Thomas and Scalia on one side and Ginsberg, Sotomayor, Kagan and Breyer on the other. Justice Kennedy is expected to be the swing vote that decides it in either direction. Whatever the justices decide, there will be considerable political ramifications.
No matter what the outcome next year, the Republic will survive and we will continue to be a free people blessed with the right and the responsibility to be engaged in the political and civic life of our country.